@hottod Thanks for your great work in filling in details and...

@hottod Thanks for your great work in filling in details and clarifying some of my points. I must declare that I don't hold any NEU shares.

To sell or not to sell one of the drug assets in the pipeline?
Who is making more money - NEU or Acadia?

I do have the details on Acadia deal with upfront (fixed) and sales milestones fees (capped) and I had to gross over them in keeping my post to 3 screenful. But I did include a URL at the end of that section for more details at https://acadia.com/media/news-releases/acadia-pharmaceuticals-acquires-ex-north-american-rights-to-trofinetide-and-global-rights-to-neurens-nnz-2591-in-rett-syndrome-and-fragile-x-syndrome/



With your in depth knowledge on the NEU/Acadia deal, it would be great if you could enlighten us with a comparison of the 2 pathways: income from Acadia having the deal done vs. had they tough it out with a Cap raise and now reaping 100% of the sales $.

In terms of the Phase 3 trail, here is the timetable given by Acadia showing the 180 day study with placebo control + 40 week extension study "to evaluate long term tolerability, safety, and effectiveness of the drug". It is unsure that FDA would give approval without the 40 week extension study. One would think NEU would not be spending the money and time if it was not a prerequisite.
https://www.neurenpharma.com/pdf/c28efd80-415f-46a4-8aed-972ebdb0bb67/Update-on-trofinetide-Phase-3-trial-in-Rett-syndrome.pdf


PYC Valuation:

My calculation and estimation of PYC's SP at $54 is only a ball park figure. A 10% of the annual US$10b was put aside for company expenditure such as cost of production, management, sales effort, further R&D etc. Currently PYC's cash burn rate is around A$23.4M p.a. as reported in the Annual Report released on 24/10/2023. Having US$1b (A$1,538M) would be plenty enough to keep the company going and pay for the production cost.

One distinct advantage of PYC's ADPKD drug is the affinity for the drug to target the kidney tissue, therefore lowering the amount required, therefore lower production cost. We are talking about a few hundred micro grammes. This is a marked contrast to Sarepta which requires 50mg/Kg body weight. i.e. For a child of 30kg, 1500mg (or 1,500,000 micro gramme) would be required. More info https://www.exondys51.com/pi

Furthermore, the US$10b appears to be a conservative estimate of the US market with a population of 333M out of the world's 7.951B (correct me if I am wrong), the ultimate market size is bigger than US$10b.

PYC has taken a global patent on ADPKD, so it should have an exclusive sales period of 20 years until someone else got a drug via a different genes pathway.

Overall, my article serves as a broad brush appreciation of how PYC's share price would track if NEU's Rett syndrome drug's progression to FDA approval would provide some guidance.