My calculation of 1 for 5 offer is based on possibly large requests from the US. I agreed with you Travelbug2 that 1 for 10 to raise $50M would be enough to do 3 drugs and then the sales derived from those would fund the rest.
The major shareholders may not take up the full entitlement this time but I am sure the large overseas investors would be happy to pick them up now at 3783% discount to valuation when the 1st 3 drugs got approved.
3783% is based on 1st 3 drugs achieving full sales valuation of $7/share annually. See more details below.
jase038, depends on which 3 drugs got approved.
PYC's official estimation of annual sales:
US$1.25-2.5b VP-001 Treating Retinitis Pigmentosa
US$10b PYC-001 Treating Diabetic Macular Degeneration and Age-related Macular Degeneration
Based on these 3 drugs, taking the mid point of the estimates, would amount to US$7.375b. At exchange rate of A$1.00 = US72c, that equates to A$10.24b or $3.50/share of annual earnings.
So far all the data packs are pointing to high efficacy on donated cells from 5 patients with DNA defects and low toxicity at 1.6 microgram (0.000 016 gram), PYC has been putting a confidence ratio of 53% on VP-001 (not sure how they got this odd number). The other 2 drugs are working off the same principle, therefore one would expect them to past the same tests.
Even at 50% confidence on 50% valuation, SP would be in the realm of $1.75. So the current SP of 18.5c is grossly undervalued!
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