PYC (ASX) PYC Chart looks the goods

Originally posted by Medicine Man: ↑

Last week, the SP has consolidated as expected. However retracement to 15c was not as harsh 14.5c at the 50% Fibonacci level. This week the 1 year performance of 264.94% is higher than last week's figure.

In the next 4 days, we would be waiting with a bated breath for FDA's decision on both orphan drug designation (ODD) and rare paediatric disease designation (RPDD). Though it should due by end of Sep-2020 we need to include 01.10.2020 as US time is 1 day behind. Any one designation and preferably both being approved would bump the SP up to 17.5 - 18c (13-16% up).

Since the last peak of 17c on 17.09.2020, a new steeper uptrend channel (brown colour) has developed and confirmed.

The Bull Case:
Good news from FDA would certainly move the SP at least back to the old high of 17c. If both designations got approved, it should reach 18c which is the 123.6% Fibonacci level. 20c is now well within reach on or around 13.11.2020 if the Rabbit Eye efficacy test is successful or US investors started buying. All these projections are based on the overall market sentiment remaining steady.

The Bear Case:
If FDA decisions are delayed by a few days due to COVID-19, the SP might cool to 14.5c at 50% retracement. If both designations were not approved, it would go all the way down to 13c which is the bottom of the uptrend channel and 23.6% Fibonacci level. Between 12.5c to 11.5c, there is a very strong support band (yellow shaded area). Besides, 11.5c is the base of the current swing high, so it is the most logical price level to retrace to when the hope of FDA designation approval is dashed.

With COVID-19 holding up a lot of bureaucratic processes, there is all likelihood that the decision might not come by end of this month.

On a positive note, based on PYC's track record of excellent efficacy and minimal toxicity in the "Retina in a dish" test, the Rabbit Eye clinical test should yield similar positive result.

These are my TA thoughts, DYOR! If you would like more of these charts and analysis, please click the "Great analysis" button for encouragement.

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No news from FDA by end Sep-2020 was a bummer! As alluded to in my last article, PYC's SP is now cooling.

However prudent investors might take this opportunity to accumulate as the deadline for rare paediatric disease designation (RPDD) and Orphan Drug Designation (ODD) have been clarified by Kaggen Asmus (Chief Business Officer - PYC) in a Zoom meeting and subsequent follow ups last week.

Timeline of 60 days for RPDD (30.09.2020) is the initial response from FDA. Factoring in FDA's request(s) for further information and PYC's responses, the process might take as long as 12 months to have RPDD granted.
The US House of Reps has passed legislation to permanently extend the RPDD program beyond 30.09.2020 last week. It now requires senate approval and presidential seal.
Timeline for ODD is 90 days and PYC is expecting to hear back from FDA by end Oct-2020.

Downside:
SP has retraced to 15c which is the 61.8% Fibonacci level. It is now sitting at the middle of the brown uptrend channel. It might hit 14.5c which is the 50% retracement, then a lot of buyers would come out as this is a popular bounce up level. Below that, the 14c level would provide support as there were 2 recent peaks at that level. Without any black swan event, the bottom of the uptrend channel of 13 - 13.5c would provide a floor. A saving grace is the volume has been lightwhile SP was trendingdown in the last 11 sessions.

Upside:
The next price target is 18.5 - 19c by end Oct-2020 if the Orphan Drug Designation is granted by the FDA. This would be a 23.3% jump from current 15c up to 18.5c. Given PYC's lead drug VP-001 to treat Retinitis Pigmentosa RP11 fits the ODD criteria well, PYC would be quietly confident. With more news in the pipeline such as rabbit eye clinical test, more information on the 2nd lead drug before the year end, the 20c level is well within sight.

These are my TA thoughts, DYOR! If you would like more of these charts and analysis, please click the "Great analysis" button for encouragement.