PYC 4.00% 12.0¢ pyc therapeutics limited

Wow! 2 "Advanced" patents filed for treatment of kidney disease...

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    Wow! 2 "Advanced" patents filed for treatment of kidney disease is for a NEW DRUG = $$$

    Rohan has answered my question today at the Investor Call webinar.

    At 25:36

    "PYC has filed another patent "Advanced compositions and methods for treatment of kidney disease 2" on 6th of May 2024. This is another "Advanced" composition of methods patent after an earlier one on 4th of April 2024.

    Would you please shed some light on this subject, is it related to ADPKD?

    The company has a lot of focus on our clinical stage programs right now. We are continuing to work in the discovery realm. Leverage the insights and the knowledge that we have gleaned in the context of progressing each one of these assets through to clinical development. In the context of different applications of precision therapies and also expansion of our interest to other disease indications, we are not ready to make any commentary here. This represents a new modality that PYC is contemplating moving into in the future.

    It's not a focus for the organization right now. We want to keep every attention very much on the assets that are in or near clinical development. We will come back to Market at an appropriate juncture and talk further in relation to what we have done there and that goes generally for conceptually what is occurring.

    Beyond just those patent filings, we continue to be very active in the discovery domain. There is just so much excitement at this point in time around what is happening as these first-in-class assets with disease modifying potential are moving through to Human readouts where the rubber meets at the road in our industry.

    And so much going on in that domain that we want to make sure we are adequately communicating in relation to what is really going to move the needle in the short term.

    We'll come back and have other conversations in relation to Discovery work at a future point in time."

    What other genetic kidney diseases could bring value to the company, and how much $$$ based on prevalence ?

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6159/6159692-eaecd87321f4fefdfe91d5b4dc7c3e20.jpg

    In order to bring a context into the estimation, the ADPKD drug has been included in the above table. Looking at the stella performance of Neuren's share price (ASX:NEU) , their P/E ratio was already hitting 17.1 after one drug has received FDA approved. By the time RP11 is approved, PYC's P/E ratio could well be over 17 because we have the ADPKD drug with 10X the RP11's income at US$10b only 12 months behind. For now, let's use a conservative figure of P/E = 10.

    There are also a few conservative assumptions used:
    • 50% uptake in the 1st year while SPINRAZA achieved 80% peak sales in their 1st year simply because there are no other drugs available.
    • Annual treatment price at US$59,000. It's a round figure to make Rohan's estimated income of US$10b. He mentioned the CIDP drug is using a US$225,000 price tag in their calculations.

    Looking at the table, we would expect PYC to either pick Alport Syndrome @ US$2b or Genetic Nephrotic Syndrome @ US$1.6b annual income. They would add A$0.67 or A$0.53 per share (i.e. A$6.65 or A$5.32 per share if P/E = 10)

    Right now the SP is pathetic as some short term traders are dumping their 8c stock for a quick buck. That is legal and there is nothing we can do. But it actually presents a fantastic opportunity for longer term investors to top up. This dumping would not go on for too long. Re-rate would happen once there are official data packs supporting evidence of efficacy. The story about that younger patient who had self-reported sight improvement in that one eye treated with 30 micrograms of RP11 drug in 4 weeks and confirmed by the clinicians in 8 weeks; is enough to boost my confidence about the future success of the drug.

    To the PYC team, this is a dream come true. Their initial aim was to halt the disease progression of RP11, now anecdotal evidence has already proving that disease modification could be attained. This is an extraordinary achievement for PYC and its team. Blue sky from here!

    If you find it useful, please click the Good Analysis button below biggrin.png
    Last edited by Medicine Man: 09/05/24
 
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