Hi, this is my first ever post so I’ll introduce myself as a long term shareholder (over a decade) and have been an unregistered lurker on this forum for a number of years. I have appreciated the many informative posts from a number of contributors.
Like many, I’m continuously frustrated at the current market valuation and the seemingly lack of recognition for the many advances and positive announcements that PYC has made.
While a few have taken exception to the recent post by brrrattt, it was more of a lightbulb moment for me and perfectly illustrated what PYC has to overcome to achieve the valuation that many believe the company should be worth.
Below is a slide from the 2023 Q2 update in June last year where it showed the difference in the probability of success of genetically validated targets compared to the traditional industry success average.
So, if you don’t differentiate PYC from traditional biotech companies, then you would think that the RP11 Program still has about a 55% chance of failure and the other three drugs in the pipeline a 90% chance of failure. Consequently, the probability that all of PYC’s drugs fail to get to market is around 40%. Therefore I believe there are a bunch of investors who incorrectly think that there is a good chance that PYC could spend a bunch of money and not end up with anything to show for it.
However, if you take the probabilities for genetic validation, the chance that all 4 drugs will fail calculates to be less than 1%, whereas the probability that all 4 drugs will be a success is around 22%. The difference between these two calculations is stark, and I believe that if PYC is to get the re-rating it deserves, then this is the key point that our CEO needs to hammer home.
(20min delay)