PYC - General Discussion, page-587

Thx actionnaire, appreciate your looking around to try to gauge the Aussie market vals for comparisons. I assume you're saying we can get to A$365m revenue within 2 years and therefore our MC could be roughly the same and then divide that by the SOI. If there is anything else to your research, would love to hear about it.

OK, but it is still a little challenging because:

1. The first drug which may be in market in 24 mths has a target market revenue of US$1B = A$1.5B, which is 3-4 times higher. Granted they will not get 100% of market and it will take time to build up, so OK....but this might be a little light on.
2. The margins have been touted as more like 90%, rather than 66%, but we don't know how they would manufacture, or the capital costs potentially involved, so....grain of salt.

So, this is where it all gets subjective and the numbers start looking a bit sureal for people to start putting about......

• Let's say we get of 50% of target market, so A$750m. (that's 2x Telix or $2.70/share on the same basis)
• At 90% margin that's $675m after COGS.
• Using the $60m expenses from the last report - although it may well be higher given all the other projects, EBITDA could be $600m (which is 10x Telix or $13.50 using current SOI)

And this is using just the first drug with a UU$1B target. The others target an additional US$17b or revenue, albeit further out, but that is 17x the current example you are using. Assuming similar metrics to the above that would be $229/share (using current SOI). Crazy stuff.....

Let's just say they achieve just 20% of their target revenue @ 70% margin that's still A$3.75B in EBITDA or more than CSL and 62x Telix....so why not compare to CSL. In fact it might be somewhat conservative at only 20% of target. So......hold on tight. This could get interesting.

(Note, just for shits and giggles....at US$18B revenue = A$26B at 90% margins = A$24B EBITDA....makes it potentially Australia's most profitable business. For example CBA posted a $9.8B profit in FY24. It's worth some $230B. 2.45x that = $563B or some 563x the current MC).

Again, these numbers just look utterly crazy, so take them with a very large grain of salt (and risk). IMO this sort of stuff would see us snapped up by someone else way before we ever reach a value like that, so we'd never get it as shareholders. Perhaps this is partly why they are looking to restructure their registry, open up US capital options to achieve better outcomes than in the Aust market as few could afford it. I do take some comfort knowing the board/top 20 hold some 50% of the company and I think that places us in a strong negotiating position, i.e. no 'need' to sell.

Anyway....enough rambling from me. GLTA.