Just an opinion on the current activity in the SP and the shorts -
Last CR - price peaked then retreated to between Fibs 61.8 - 78.6 before CR was called - Mr Tribe took his full allocation to maintain no dilution - Suppose he was happy to top up at the lower price ?
Current - price peaked at 2.10 and has now retreated to between 61.8 - 78.6 no CR announced as yet - most likely Mr Tribe will look to maintain his position and take up his full allocation again at the lower price.
It seems to me that the SP has been allowed to fall rather than being supported (instos that want in) to accomodate those that want in via a CR at a discount - hard to keep biggish CR's unleaked, people being people, self interest and opportunity hence the short activity although not substantial is persistant. Each 1c SP fall costs Mr Tribe approx $1.6M - $112M so far - dont think he would accept that without a near term benefit eventuating. Hopefully the shorter isn't given the opportunity to cover via the CR - although covering on market shouldn't be an issue for the amount involved.
Hopefully we are close to some action - get it sorted - and get back to an SP that goes in the other direction for the benfit of all.
Cheers - had some spare time on this New Years eve !
(20min delay)