Hi Guys,
I have been looking at the potential of PYM and if they hit the production numbers that they have stated in the initial flow tests, then I can see very large upside and cannot understand why SP is so low. I have put my workings below and would like feedback.
From the July half yearly report – page 6 (net to Pryme) = 25,207 BoE (for the 6 mths)
This means a daily BoE = 25207/(365/2) = 138 BoE / day
This means revenue of approx. 13,800 (with Oil at $100).
“I used 100 as it keeps numbers simple and is close.”
Now with initial flow testing of Deshotels 13H -1,167bpd of oil and 600mcf/d of natural gas (30% NRI). I have calculated the following daily rate of BoE
(600/6.1) + 1,167 @ 30% = 379.5 BoE
Again using ($100) –additional revenue is $37,950 day.
So total annual revenue = (13,800 + 37,950) x365 = $18.8 M
Looking at costs in the July Report this is approx. $3M.
Yearly costs~ $6M , - this can vary, but its all I have to use at the moment.
Current Market Cap = $19.5M.
Therefore, if production matches the flows, the SP should be multiples of current?
My valuation on near term (< 6 months) SP is:
EBIT/share = (12.8/260) = 4.9c
Say profit is 60% of EBIT = 2.95c
P/E of 10 = 29.5c per share.
This does not factor in any upside on additional wells.
Am I missing something/ does my arithmetic add up?
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