Everything is a maybe in a government approval process,...

Everything is a maybe in a government approval process, especially when we have no real visibility on the process. Other than timing.

So to the point, you can't reasonably put any real weight that another variation request being refused when we don't know anything about said request. (The variation request could include James Cameron in his submarine to witness... )

We invest on a maybe, if its a guarantee then the SP would represent that, thus the point of investing on the basis of a pending approval really goes out the window.