Hi Chuk,
Following this thread with some interest and I have also followed your posts for a while now.
A couple of questions if I may .........
1. Given that I don't have access to your valuation spreadsheet and methodology I am wondering if your valuation is based on the $2000 gold price that you are inferring in this post?
I typically do low, base and upper case valuations and always base my buy decisions on lower. Everything above lower case is icing on the cake.
*IF* your valuation is based on $2000 gold then you are essentially betting on the gold price more so than on KGL as an entity. I expect that your valuation will be based on reality and not potential future gold price increases but I am just seeking some clarification on this.
2. You have also commented on $2000 gold estimates and specifically "extra dollars in circulation" and "continued printing".
I'm no expert in foreign currency movement, however it seems to me that the money in circulation that you are referring to is actually borrowed money (US debt circa $16 Trillion) and not printed money. Specifically Bond purchases.
The biggest purchaser of US Bonds is actually institutions/etc. from within the U.S and not China as many seem to think. China, of course is the largest foreign buyer but by no means the largest net buyer of US bonds.
So, I am interested in your clarification. re printing versus borrowing/bonds as I personally believe that high gold price valuations based on "printing" is not necessarily accurate and to date we haven't really seen a massive spike in inflation if we use cost of living as a barometer.
Obviously if we look at currency devaluation over the past 100 years than there is an argument to make. re. dollar debasement but that has been happening for a very long time and IMO doesn't justify the gold price valuations/printing argument.
Now, how this debt is going to repaid is a different argument but we are not anywhere near that point atm.
Sorry for the long winded post but as KGL's risk reward improves I am becoming increasingly interested in informed viewpoints on this thread.
Cheers
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