I currently base my valuations on $1650 and 1.03AUD/USD (close...

I currently base my valuations on $1650 and 1.03AUD/USD (close to spot).
I use below spot for other metals (except silver where I use spot again).
I've never used spot for anything before but because I am confident that gold is well below where it should be, I currently use $1650 and consider it to be conservative enough.
We seem to have formed a stable price around this level despite the bearish sentiment lately.
We might go well below 1650 but I think if we do it will be relatively short term (months not years) and expect it to be followed by much higher prices later.

If you want to ignore the debt, look at the M3 money supply. It's up by a factor of over 7.
I use 1980 as a starting reference because it follows the period where gold was repriced by a free market. It peaked at over $800 and settled at around $400 soon afterwards. Some use the $800 peak as a start point but that would hardly be conservative.
1980 also gives us the longest period possible starting with the period after the volatilty settled down. Its the best place to start IMO.
Since just after 1980, gold is up by a factor of around 4.
Money supply is up by a factor of 7. Houses in Melbourne are up by more than M3 as are many other everyday prices (electricity etc). AUD was also near parity in 1980.
If gold rose by as much as M3, it would be $2800 now based on current money supply only).
If you ignore the huge debt levels you ignore the very high probability that they will have to increase money supply much further. That is at a greater rate now than they have done in the past.
Ignoring that though, I still see 2,800 as where gold should be now. I look at what earnings gold stocks would be on at spot, at 2000, 2500 and 2800 but still use 1650 when posting valuations.