q for tibbs, page-2

Hi Risktaka

IMHO, you will not be living up to your name if you can get in at these levels!! Not many "risks" to "taka" here!!

Puns aside, can you see prices at these levels in six months time as we have cash flow from Elouera, and Avondale being fast-tracked to production? I honestly cant .... I still use RIV as a model to see just how much BHP is prepared to "give away" when they divest their older projects. The Avondale purchase is an amazing "get" for GUJ, especially in view of the synergies it provides for Avondale!

In relation to the short-term SP ... I am surprised at the softness of the SP the last two days .... but it really is the "silly season" and people to all sorts of strange things to their portfolios - I know I did; I sold everything that was in a loss position Thursday & Friday for a tax loss, & I have to admit that included one 30k parcel of GUJ I had bout at higher prices (In my defense I will have a MASSIVE tax bill, and was looking at every opportunity to offset it ... also, I have close to 800k of GUJ/O, so please don’t shoot me!) .... So, I am glad to enter the New tax year & look forward to seeing the SP firming from here.

I still do feel we will be positively influenced by the India NRE float .... they are so similar in structure & unless India lists poorly, GUJ will have to be seen as a discount entry to the sector. I will be amazed if there is a big difference in the SP's of the two of them in coming weeks!

As well, I do feel the same as a few other holders here on HC, that the SP has lagged because there is uncertainty as to the funding arrangements for Elouera.... ie: SPP, debt, or some other?

Because of these two factors combined, we have discounted entry opportunities. I feel there is minimal downside for a company that will have 2 producing coal mines soon!

Hope that helps ... Otherwise it is your decision based on you own investment criteria

All the best & Cheers