LYC 0.87% $8.09 lynas rare earths limited

Q-Sep Estimate

  1. klu
    742 Posts.
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    A rough estimate of Q-September, with assumptions:
    (1) NdPr price stay at current level of US$47/kg; and
    (2) Sale volume and cost are the same as Q-June.
    (3) Revenue Rest (from Ce/La etc) increase from A$11m in Q-Jun to A$12m in Q-Sep

    Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6
    0   Q-Sep16 Q-Dec16 Q-Mar17 Q-Jun17 Q-Sep17
    1 NdPr Price (US$) 32.1 31 33.8 36.5 47
    2 Sale NdPr (ton) 1176 1331 1373 1343 1343
    3 NdPr Revenue (US$m) 37.7 41.3 46.4 49.1 63.1
    4 NdPr Revenue (A$m) 49.7 54.3 61.1 64.6 83.1
    5 Volume Rest 1905 2019 2064 3405 2750
    6 Revenue Rest (A$m) 4.1 10.7 8.2 11.0 12.0
    7 Total Revenue ($m) 53.8 65.0 69.3 75.6 95.1
    8 Cost ($m), exc. Interest 52.1 60.0 57.7 60.0 60.0
    9 Operation CF ($m) 1.7 5 11.6 15.6 35.1

    Estimates:
    (1) Revenue = A$95 million;
    (2) Operation Cash Flow = A$35 million.

    Note that the first four columns are reported/converted data.  The last column comprises the simple estimates and the straightforward assumptions.  

    Any comments and corrections are welcome
 
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