Q1 FY2023 Update

In advance of the update due later in October, I thought I'd share what I'm looking out for in the numbers.

Two absolutely key ones for me:

1.) Top line revenue (they call it 'marketplace revenue'). Q1 last year was $106m. Last quarter (Q4 22) was $98m. I'm expecting yoy growth, and looking to see the number come in around $115-120m . One thing I'm uncertain of is how much the USD strength is going to boost the top line. A few percent I reckon.

2.) GPAPA % . I'm hoping Gross margin stays at around 40%, but it might dip a bit lower given the promotional activity at the end of the quarter (a 30% off sale). But GPAPA% is the absolute key number- how much are they having to spend on user acquisition. Last year was 26%, last quarter was 23%. I'd really like to see this maintained at 23% or above.

Other numbers:

OpEx: I am modelling $35m based on the company's guidance of $135-£145m for the full year. I think it will probably come in a bit lower than this though (last quarter $29.7m, so perhaps $32.5m)

EBITDA: Expecting a loss of around $10m (last year $3.9m EBITDA profit)

Here's my little graph showing where EBITDA comes out for the year based on different GPAPA% and revenue numbers. I'm currently expecting a full year revenue of $560m, giving an $11m loss for the year- but a fair bit of uncertainty here still.