LYC lynas rare earths limited

Q1, Q2, SAR estimates., page-2

  1. 8,401 Posts.
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    Well I totally missed the average sales price estimate Mine was 80 AUD it came in at $49.3. I was wrong and I am not trying to say anything different. Why I missed is important I totally assumed the wrong ratio of NdPrO to other products figure they would make far more of their most profitable product. Two analyst asked about this in different ways. AL and POL passed the question back and forth like a hot potato and i never heard an answer. Here is the % NDPR for last 4 Qs.
    Q2 2022 32.3 % Q3 '22 34% Q4 '22 43.3% Q1 2023 30%. Lowest NdPr out put as % of total in a couple of years.

    In Q4 when there was a Water shortage AL clearly said they used water to boost NdPr. Because it was more Profitable. Why did they reverse course? There are several reasons for this I will list a few of the more positive ones. There Customers for non NDPR products needed their product, and it would not be good to put them off for over 6 months. The time to produce NdPr is longer so they concentrated on what they could get out the door.
    Both of these answers would be understood. My question why they could not directly and clearly answer the questions?

    As far as profits there is a quick way to estimate profits that I have never seen it be off by more than plus or minus 10% from SAR and AR. Take revenue Q4 234M and subtract Production and admin expenses 104 M. so profits were 104 M.


    I said I would put out a estimate for Q2 fairly quickly. Yesterdays report causes me to question the assumptions that I was going to make. I need a few days to think about this.
 
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