I find it very hard to believe that the royalty with be $35m. That level of royalties would require GSK to sell approximately 23m courses during the quarter, which equates to 90m annualised. In other words you have to believe that GSK produced and sold at its max capacity throughout the quarter. I think this is unlikely.
I think the royalty will be a max $25m.
q1 relenza royalty tipping contest, page-24
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