LYC 1.35% $5.83 lynas rare earths limited

Q2 Activities and cash report.

  1. 7,500 Posts.
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    I been hoping that Lynas would put at least audio of Q meeting on web site it has been a few days and I cannot find it.  If it is there,   could someone let me know. I had dinner guest and could not listen.   EST

    To all those who said this would make me go away thank you for thinking of me when I was not even posting, it makes me feel good. What you fail to understand is I really do want to buy again,   I see the risk  reward benefits at today's capitalization very poor.  Much better chance of buying lower in the future. I post my concerns  because I want to know why Others think it is better than I do.   Unfortunately all I hear is insults and non fact based dreams.

    Couple of points from Q2 report.   They produced  4174   sold 4495 compared to Q1 when they was  4600 made 4500 sold. Assuming that they sold about the same NDPR that they produced.   (carry over Q to Q is about the Same) NDPR   was 31% of sales Q1 and 27%   Q2    I plot all this out add it to my charts and I am starting to feel that Contract delay is more than 90 days.   They are on the downward side of  price curve.   September NDPR saw a high of  US $ 64.5  December a low of $36.7  ( from Lynas activities reports) since then prices have risen to $40.8, (Ruidow). So regardless if you think Contract delay is 90 or 120 days we should expect a larger fall in ASP Q2 to Q3 than we saw  Q1  to  Q2.   This combined with the cash burn estimate for Q3 going up to 78.7M from 75.1 Q2  and cash payment to   ALEB of   AU$ 30.8M is considered.    I would expect cash flow to be near zero All depends on how much ASP goes down.   Please note though Lynas has not mentioned it   the manufacturing cost has risen from AU $9.74 KG  Q2 “17   to AU  $ 11.7 Q2 ‘18, 20%  

      If I include all operational expenses from cash report  line  1.2
    B development AU $ 4.5M C production 46.0 D  staff 9.1 E admin 5.7 Cost is  65M or $15.68  KG   So all it would take is a $5.10 drop in ASP to create a negative cash flow from operations.

    Just to help people out from Lynas activities report here are the NDPR prices for last 12   months.  
    Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10 Column 11 Column 12
    0 jan feb march APR may june july aug sept oct nov dec
    1 31.9 33.0 34.2 35.3 36.3 38.0 45.3 60.3 64.5 53.1 45.6 36.7

    Ruidow today US 40.8 no vat. Ruidow and Lynas are usually very close.
 
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