Q3 FY2018 Quarterly, page-17

@taffyjuke

it depends on the broker, its business model and when the research comes out

you usually cannot trust an inception report on a small cap because its generally tied to the broker helping with a capital raise. though that wasnt the case here

State One i happen to know also is a retail brokerage and doesnt do much at all in cap raisings - it makes its money almost purely on brokerage + some microcap raises of a milion or 2.

the way it works is that - because such brokerages have smaller and more volatile fees bases - they have few analysts who tend to be very selective where they put their time - as their salary has to be paid for by buy/sell orders not 5% on a raise.

So i think you can give the State One update a fair degree of credibility for it authentically reflectign the analysts view of stock potential pathwa, but have to bear in mind
- the analyst is not inside BUD - can;t see the internal numbers - so his projected pathway is speculative
- newly emerging offerings have a super wide range of outcomes - an anlyst's projections simply cover what they think the 'main path of probability' would be.


I imagine State One is on the story because State One had historic links to the old potash and is heavily WA focused where a lot of BUD seed came from.

but i dont feel too cynical in relation to their analysis

if you read something from Bell Potter that would be much more likely to carry some corporate finance bias