we discussed that ~3 weeks ago, to the extent that it can be done - in terms of breaking down how the sales/billing/reporting cycle works.
the sales/billing/reporting cycle appears to be an absolute minimum 4 months but will be 6.5 months on avg for a one month trial install from what I;ve been able to work out
one month to sell/install for very earliest sale efforts,
one month trial,
one month of billable service,
payment to BUD within one month of billing(Digicel agreement) whether Digicel is paid or not- expect this to be near to last day
1 to 4 months to reporting.
if income is in bank 31 march it gets reported by 30 April(one month). If it lands 1 April it gets reported 31 July(4 months).
but on avg all payments can be assumed to hit bank mid quarter eg 15 feb - so thats 2.5 extra months before that is reported in a 4C.
the company said june 18 quarterly for material ohm-related flows ie they expected sales to become material from late 2017 - suggesting ~ 3months of training, education and system integration per distributor.
from my own sales experience thats a fair expectation.
After training it usually then takes a month or 3 of attempting sales to work out what pitches work best and refine how you approach clients. Sales effectiveness lifts significantly once you;ve worked that out. So at about ~4-6 months of selling you generally are seeing sales operate to potential.
So about 7-9 months from initially inking a deal I would regard as the 'mature' sale rate of each distributor - so about 13.5- 15.5months in terms of reported income
Re income - we dont know what material is
We can fairly assume the first 2-3 quarters will reflect a lot of partial billings (ie 26 days of 3 months - depending on when contract started)
the market's been digesting this now it got over its hot flush and been repricing the stock accordingly - which is why it fell 20c to 11.5c. 20c of the 41c was bull market pricing.
the market is gaming this into quarterly with a sell off/and expect perhaps a moderate run up into the quarterly case of an outperform ahead of schedule
other than the fact a +5% shareholder has said on this forum the stock was cheap at 24c - which depending on his comprehension of how stocks are priced, level of information and trustworthiness may indicate some potential for an early income upside shock - there isnt anything left to say based on facts that im aware of
other than the above - if you want to waffle on about something you cannot control and have no other basis of facts on which to talk - go ahead
if youve got new facts - ante up
otherwise - ive got better uses for my time - which in this case was aimed at providing some insights to non business people about how business works
the hullaballoo about Rizon's website last year indicates a lot of people have little idea about B2B business
as i said at the time it was the CVs of the directors, not the website - that was the important thing to consider - when trying to work out if a new business could be a good distributor for Bud ohm
thats why i outlined that post last night - to help people think about the way distributors differ in big ways
but otherwise -there are no new facts for the coming quarterly I aware of.
chattering without facts is for the sparrows
BUD Price at posting:
12.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
