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0.6¢ buddy technologies ltd

Q3 FY2018 Quarterly, page-58

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DreadPirateRoberts

989 Posts.

387

23/04/18

11:14

Post #: 32624404
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Originally posted by goldbear77 ↑

oh you;ve sold..

well as i said the market aims to find points of maximum pain - there'll be a shorting circle pushing this low that will likely lighten off just ahead of the quarterly to protect against a face rip

the ceo may have lowered or even emptied his trust bank with those ambiguous representations and so the stock could be back at square one reputationally- and there'll be some who were offered or even participated in the raise who - if they feel misled - will be driving the sp down as a point of principle.

or they feel he knew precisely what he was doing - in which case same result.

like i said - long memories.

but as i said before - 2/3rds of this isnt stock specific. which i imagine is the mistake a lot of people are making - because thats what retail investors think all the time - they just look at 'their stock' and their holdings.

look at KNM, WBT, FZO the list goes on and on

ASX small tech has - by and large - halved in ~3 months - whether subjected to asx queries or not

this is why I said that - after the initial sp launch of stock this is the 2nd greatest invesment return opportunity for investors in what is known as the 'bull/bear trap phase' - but has a much higher risk

ie after discovery but before you know somethings a success - there's almost always this gaming of the sp by the pros.

the big money buys at the base - then pushes it higher once they decide on timing - progressively sell it to retailers on way up - then may buy it back once they decide its fallen enough

sectorally - the timing for this as i said is that a sector rarely rips up again within 6 months of a prior run - but there are individual stocks that out perform the sector if they have good enough news and stock specific progress

big money has recently been moving away from tech toward commodity/inflation plays.

Tech actually does well historically in times or rising inflation - but investors were so underweight commodities and consumer discretionary that this is a readjustment as money moves from 'high overweight tech' to 'overweight tech' and 'underweight resources' to 'neutral/slight overweight resources.'

this is why FANG in the US has fallen while BHP/RIO are rising

stock specifically - BUD has about $100m EV at the moment. Not much but not quite nothing

So to some degree its near term future outlook will depend on
a) if numbers in the quarterly are good, or (more likely)
b) if mgt works out how to communicate properly about the revenue lag,
c) most likely - if mgt can pinpoint the specific near term building blocks of future success that they know - as opposed to think

an innovative thing they could consider to a proxy 'channel check'.

ie what analysts do when they want to check if Apple is on track or not is call a dozen of their biggest distribution partners to find out how sales have been going

If i were BUD i might look at delivering a similar line by line appraisal of where each vendor is at in terms of progress. its a way to restore faith in transparency. You dont have to talk specific units. but tracking vs plan. Its a concept at least

but yes - what you are seeing now was to a degree sown by BUD last July-Nov - but thats not the largest part of the 41-11.5c slide

i havent changed my views at all on what the outlook is for the tech and the business. Now to me is a buying opportunity not a selling opportunity. but its still speculative.

great 12 month buying for a spec hold at these implied valuations - but not one for leverage. A lot can happen between now and end of July

but i do think we're also approaching the point of natural upside surprises. its now going on ~6 months since most distributors first heard of this Ohm thing and 2-3 months on avg since their 'top of mind' clients first saw it in action

if there's natural adoption appeal there should be more stories like Nestle start to percolate through

Expand

What “ambiguous representations” are you referring to specifically?

BUD Price at posting: 11.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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