BUD (ASX) Q3 FY2018 Quarterly

Originally posted by Techmeister ↑

Great post GB - a few more thoughts...

From BUD's side they have achieved a great deal:
- a rapidly evolving product with new features coming on line pretty much quarterly
- a global network of partners to assist in distribution, sales, installation...
- the commencement of sales in a number of territories
- evolved sales strategy after various trials and conversations with the market
- the beginnings of revenue - that become material in July (so we're repeatedly told)

From the market side things are more nascent:
- urgency of demand is a bit spotty and unclear
- which sectors? which countries? which kind of corporations/institutions? are early movers?
- how long before the later-movers come on line?
- how will the smart/green agenda unfold? how does it move out from govt to the broader market?
- how will companies use the data that Ohm provides? will it create amazing results in the short term?
- will those case studies rapidly compel others to get involved?
- are we to measure BUD's progress in months? quarters? or years? how viral can it be?
- what would it take to get to the magical 10,000 buildings?

For me the July quarterly is an inflection point - the moment BUD switches from pre-revenue to revenue - this is an epic moment as all assessment of the business effectively changes overnight

For the first time we have some proper basis for understanding the relationship between time in the market and revenue generated - as we already know there are multiple stages from product creation to income flow (creation / testing / distribution / trials / sales process / install / billing cycle)

Therefore any money reported in July 2018 likely comes from Ohms installed around Sept to November 2017 - all those installed between Jan and March 2018 probably show up in the Oct quarterly - and so on

And of course all the regions that have just commenced sales - eg LATAM - won't get to installs till at least May - and so won't show up revenue till the final quarter

So the key issue to understand is: when do sales start? when does revenue flow from those sales? how quickly can the whole global roll-out cumulate?

It is a classic case of trickles of ice melt in the mountains becoming streams potentially becoming raging torrents in the valleys below.

If you believe that this is underway - and is moving at sufficient speed - then you should be a keen investor.

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Great analysis mate!

Definitely a keen investor on my end. Huge upside imo current sp is dirt cheap.