You are correct but why a PE of 60? why not 100 or 250 or even Tesla's 600+. I am OK with you using 60, if you supply some justification.
Here is my Justification. FCX a gold and copper company that has been very successful pays a 30 cent dividend has traditionally had a PE below 10 is currently at 30. Paying a dividend raises PE. It is all about RTN.
NEM a Gold company that also does other metals like silver again traditionally PE below 10 Pays a USD 2.20 dividend 3.5% of SP current PE
20.
PE is not the only measure of how a company is doing it should not be looked at alone. But remember that PE inverted is your return for last year.
1/60 = 1.66% If PE is 60 in 2025 that means company has only returned or grown 1.66% in the year before. Are you really telling me you would be happy with that?
Here is a chart of ASX 200 PEs.
Market Statistics (ASX): PE, Earnings & Yield - Market Index So think of what a PE of 60 means Lynas is earning on a % basis. Look at traditional PE for other companies mining and processing expensive metals. Look at historical charts of ASX PEs then explain to me why you think we should use a PE of 60.
A company value only grows by it earning money. ( yes Lynas grew this year by selling stock but that usually lowers book value a share.) A PE of 20 Means that Profits are only 5% of Stock price. Yes speculators can bid a stock up way beyond its book Value But with out good profits that will erode. At the bottom of the the table on page 18 of SAR the book value of Lynas is AUD 964. 401M. With over 900M shares out standing that is a book value of just over AUD 1.00 a share. Why do you think 5.XX is a good price for something that is only valued at about AUD1.00 It will take AUD 900M in earnings to raise that value to 2.00 where do you see that coming from in next 5 years?
Yes this Q is going to be amazing but some unusual things are coming to geather to make that happen. I do not see it happening for the next 2 Qs do you? in fact it might not happen for a long time again.
The two biggest things are a run up of 40% in NdPr price in 90 days. this ended in late march but sales prices are delayed by 90 ~ 120 days.
A AUD 50 M carry over from Q3 to Q4. How often can we expect things like this to line up?
(20min delay)