INteresting side point. We are all fed Airline deaths as a per mile stat. Of course airlines are immensely safe by that measure. One of the safest methods of travel, because of the sheer miles covered. Change the stat to time spend flying and suddenly its not quite as good. In fact it becomes on the worse methods of travel in terms of safety.
But this is a thread about shorting Qantas. Rather fortuitously closed a little of my short position Friday. Sold it back and building more again today and on any other rallies.
Qantas has sold a great chunk of its earning generating assets in recent years (staff not unincluded). Its in effective all time highs as the oriiginal author points out with one of the worse balance sheets in the market (and thats saying something given the state of US airlines) as it continues to burn cash and faces, despite all the hype, a very disjointed revenue space for the next 6-24 months (no-one really knows).
The European/US reopening trade for airlines failed miserably as aircraft activity remains well below 2019 comparable periods. To think Australia is different is frankly naive. Early reports show low demand for those domestic flights offered. Qantas sounds like its going to be flying a lot of half empty domestic planes. International flights are not returning until well into 2022 in many cases.
"Qantas CEO Alan Joyce says international travel in 2022 could be up to three times normal levels due to “pent up demand”." He is becoming Musk like in his patter. The entire rest of the global flight industry in the doldrums since borders opened up months ago. Even the International Air Travel Association (massively biased to a positive outlook) only projects that the number of global travelers will be 88% of pre-COVID-19 levels for 2022 and expects demand to linger and expectations for 2030 remain about 7% below the pre-pandemic forecast, but Alan knows better of course.
QAN Price at posting:
$5.60 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)