Qantas: Working Capital Deficit

Just a heads up Qantas might not seems as secure as some people might think.
Often reference is made to "Qantas cash on hand" as being a secure buffer.

But Qantas actually is operating on a significant working capital deficit (current assets - current liabilities).
Remember those current liabilities by definition fall due within the next 12 months max (and are mostly much much shorter than 12 months)

This is ok for a company that has a high ability to forecast sales and knows that it will continue to achieve sales and collect cash which it can use to fund those current liabilities as they fall due.

However if a situation like now occurs with those sales dropping significantly below expectations, then the resulted cash translation from sales also falls, and the Qantas might have problems meeting its current liability obligations.

From 31 December 2019 balance sheet:
Current Assets: $3.5b
Current Liabilities: $8.7b
Deficit: -ve $5.2b

Notice as well that within current assets: cash $1.7b but within current liabilities: $4.2b of bookings in advance liability
So effectively qantas has an obligation to customers of $4.2b, but is only holding $1.7b, the rest has been already spent.

If flights get cancelled, if bookings unexpectedly drop further, if the coronavirus continues for longer than people expect, and spread internationally more than people expect, if governments start to increase travel restrictions longer and wider than people expect, Qantas is very very exposed.