I don't disagree with you overall - but you may have the rose-coloured glasses for a tad too long (I know I have). Management have many critical things wrong:
(i) The asset side of the business is wrong (there is no need to have such a high weighting in Single A or better credits for the portfolio - absolutely no need and for such a long period.) To have an investment return of 2.5-3% is ludicrous. It borders on stupidity and smacks of Management not understanding the competitive advantage they have (OR being too conservative so they can preserve their sleepy executive jobs/packages)
(ii) A blowout in COR to 110% is actually v v bad (no matter how big or small the business is). The net effect is a potential decrease in Insurance margin of 15% (2016 9.7% vs 8.5% bottom end of range for 1H 2017). ("potential" being probable in this case)..... what does that tell you about how wrong they got the EM division numbers.... especially if a small division (only ~10% of GWP) can impact the GROUP's insurance earnings by negative 15%.....
happy to be corrected and hoping i am wrong.......
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