I have been reading lots of posts going back to about March, where predictions of $20 0r $30 by the end of year were not uncommon, and confident statements that we will never see $14 again were a dime a dozen. I can only assume these people are extreme optimists or trying to talk themselves into believing it is going to happen.
I am going to state again that I will be more than happy for QBE to still be around it current price at the end of the year (40% gain is no laughing matter) if it means we are going to return to the pre 2008 days where the company was out performing the market by 15 to 20% every year and it provided overall returns over 10 years of 20%+.
If it is $70 in ten years time and has paid 4% dividend every year, and showing every likelihood that it can continue into the future, I will be one happy camper.
I will also be happy if the company continues to focus on being a well run company, making profits on their insurance business and the US yields and OZ dollar are the cream, not the focus.
As soon as management starts being bullish, I am likely to strongly consider selling. Under promise, over perform.
And in the interests of full disclosure, QBE represent over 25% of my portfolio (QBE value $140,000+), so is significant driver on my ability to retire comfortably.
Probably not a popular position, but so be it.
QBE Price at posting:
$14.45 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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