qbe it is time to arise, page-8

Mickee
There is no doubt you know your stuff. And I mean that. And I have a strong sense that many of the fundamental processes in QBE are broken, or certainly not optimised, not least basic price and risk
But you probably don’t want to recognise a simple fact. How the market values a blue chip in terms of market capital, very often doesn’t reconcile with what an expert (like your self) can actually see in terms of capability. I have worked as an exec in a number of blue chip companies, in banking and insurance. And I struggle to reconcile this myself. Banking stock is a classic example when macro environment accounts for 95% of market value, regardless of how broken basic capability inherent is.

I am very certain that this will be valued at $20b by end 2019 (or Mid 2020) and putting money where my mouth is. Bond yields are cyclical and will push up a further 100bps to 200bps in 2 yrs. US equities, economy and currency are wobbly at best. A flight to AUD FX & equities, yield stock, insurance, and stock that is leveraged to 2 yr bond will happen. QBE represents all of the above. Plus QBE is hugely indervalued versus peers, given it’s historic fall, and credibility of surprise earnings. Ironically analysts will look at this positively (better to invest in a company with low lying fruit than a company fully optimised). And when US market turns and above plays out, the share price of QBE will move fast. Additionally I believe cash rate has further to full in Aus too. At least another 25bps maybe early 2019. So yield equity for Australian investors becomes even more attractive. Consequently I have significant investment now in QBE. And will increase. The stock price may fall below $9 temporarily. But will be at c. $20+ in 18 to 24 months. Maybe $25. And I am not going to miss out on this once in a decade opportunity. Hope you can appreciate this and make some money too
Cheers
Pez