CathodeCritical MineralsNickelBattery nickel demand is set to...

CathodeCritical MineralsNickel

Battery nickel demand is set to triple by 2030, according to Benchmark estimates.

“Mid and high level performance EVs will be the primary driver of battery nickel demand growth in the coming years, particularly in Western markets,” said Jorge Uzcategui, senior nickel analyst at Benchmark. “There will be growth in China, but it won’t be as pronounced as in ex-China markets.”

While much of the narrative surrounding the battery industry has centred on the rapid reuptake of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) technology in China in recent years, nickel-based chemistries are set to retain a significant share of the battery market. This is due to the technologies improved performance and the lack of a localised LFP supply chain outside of China.

As the cathode chemistry mix continues to evolve, Benchmark projects LFP and nickel-containing chemistries to each serve different regions and end-use market segments.

Short-term pain

Like other battery minerals, battery nickel demand has fallen victim to economic headwinds that have resulted in slower-than-expected EV sales growth across western markets in 2024. Inflationary pressures and high interest rates have eroded the cost competitiveness of electric models compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) peers.

As electrification weighs on automakers’ balance sheets, the recent slowdown has seen EV sales targets scrapped or delayed in Europe and North America.

• Battery gigafactory plans have correspondingly been paused or cancelled, reducing the 2030 supply forecast by 3% for North America and 10% for Europe from previous estimates, according to the Benchmark Lithium ion Battery Forecast.
• In contrast, Chinese EV sales have performed strongly year to date, hitting a record high in October of 1.195 million sold in October. But this has largely been underpinned by vehicles utilising LFP batteries, and thus the impact on nickel demand has been more limited.

“In the medium term, we do expect nickel battery demand growth will be slower than previous estimates. This is due to a downgraded outlook for EV demand in ex-China markets, higher LFP uptake in entry level EVs, as well as political and economic headwinds,” Uzcategui said.

Demand growth may also be impacted by an ongoing shift in the NCM cathode chemistry mix, as mid-nickel variants are favoured to high-nickel as they provide improved thermal stability, reducing the risk of EVs overheating or catching fire.

“The current low price environment for cobalt and manganese has made these mid-nickel chemistries more economical than in the past,” Uzcategui added.

Long term gain

The current bearishness permeating the nickel market belies the fact that battery nickel demand is undergoing a period of rapid growth.

While softer-than-expected demand and massive supply-side expansions have helped drag nickel prices to their lowest level since 2020, battery nickel demand is set to record strong growth of 27% year-on-year in 2024.

And long term demand prospects remain bullish: Benchmark projections indicate that nickel-based chemistries will capture 85% battery cell production capacity outside of China by 2030, with production increasingly pivoting towards high-nickel chemistry longer-term.

According to the Benchmark Nickel Forecast, batteries are projected to account for over 50% of nickel demand growth by 2030, reaching 1.5 million tonnes of nickel demand by the end of the decade.