The BOM is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Its not just some random website. They say:
"Computer weather models, or technically, ‘numerical weather prediction’ models, are the main tools we use to forecast the weather. In a nutshell, they take all of the mathematical equations that explain the physics of the atmosphere and calculate them at billions of points within the atmosphere around the Earth."
https://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/1696/explainer-how-meteorologists-forecast-the-weather/
They don't use descriptive statistics/observations to predict weather. They plug those statistics into a MODEL, and the model (ie the physics formulas) generates those predictions. Which leads to the relevant point, what is your TA model? We have the observations, such as the candles. But what is the model?
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