QPM Chart, page-3926

I think it's incorrect to say that technicals carry no significant weight. Between October and February QPM lost more than 50% of its share price, and I can definitely say it wasn't worth more than double what it is now just four months ago! A friend of mine who is an ardent fundamental investor and scoffs when I talk about charts was frantically urging me to buy QPM when it 'dropped' to the mid 20s fairly recently, he told me to buy and said I'd thank him later. I did look and I did agree that the fundamentals were fantastic but the chart and time frame were plainly terrible, so I waited, and of course that has meant I've been able to buy about twice as much for the same money, while allowing my money to appreciate elsewhere in the mean time.

It's definitely true that if you see very good fundamental value you'll generally make money in the long term, but TA can definitely help you to optimise your entries and exits, even if you don't want to trade.

I have no doubt that the DFS (assuming it is what we expect) will cause a rerate, and I have little doubt that will be followed by a correction followed by a long orphan period, followed by another rerate closer to operations and sales commencing. The price will follow a wild ride along the way and there will be multiple chart patterns at work and games being played and probably institutional manipulation etc along the way, but if the situation was based primarily on fundamentals you would basically see a chart with a series of horizontal lines which change after announcements or major geopolitical events, and you will literally never find a chart on the ASX which looks like that, because FA isn't actually what controls the price most of the time.