righto... I've been reading the posts for a few days but now I have to step in.
point 1, let's look at the partners
- posco
- lg
- GM!!!
point 2, there's this thing called debt. y'all might have heard of it, maybe with you mortgage. basically companies can fund projects with debt/equity. small mining companies rarely get debt because it's difficult to quantify an asset that you can't see (because it's under the ground). let's look at the debt potential partners
-naif
- efa
- THE KOREAN GOVERNMENT FFS
industrial projects can carry higher levels of debt because it's supported mostly by real assets that produce cash flow the moment they are operational. debt funders like that.
point 3, the DFS construction costs have been priced at the peak of global inflation driven by mostly supply chain. by the time FID comes about I suspect there'll be probably 15% in cost softening.
point 4, the North Queensland economy needs a project like this. the government knows that and that's why they have been supporting this project vocally along the way. government has a way of getting things done when it is good for the community (which results more importantly in more votes)
point 5, it arguably one of the most attractive ESG early stage investments in Australia. superfunds are overflowing with cash that they want to throw at ESG projects. with $500m annual EBITDA, it's not ridiculous to think that one or more superfunds won't tip in for equity, especially the industry ones whos members will be the people making money out of building the plant most probably.
so to conclude. if you bought this stock thinking you wouldn't have to tip in more cash out of your pocket to get it built, or be diluted by equity raising then that was probably an error in judgement.
yes it's a big Capex, and yes it's more than everyone expected. but the off take is contracted and the right partners have tipped in a not insurmountable amount of money which I'd assume they don't want to flush.
is it a sure thing? nothing is. am I backing management? yes.
so y'all need to stop your complaining and either help create awareness of a project you believe in and want to see happen and help the company raise the money, or quit like a big quitter. nothing that's worth having comes easy.
I'm out
lots of love
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