LFP market share is certainly growing but it has real challenges as well. The attached report provides a good overview. The research expects LFP cost competitiveness to diminish pretty quickly over the next few years as NCM chemistry continues to improve on a $/kWh basis. There is also the challenge of recycling LFP. That said, there will always be a market for lower performance batteries, and LFP will continue to grow, especially in China. But even assuming some of the most aggressive LFP adoption forecasts (50%), the volumes of Ni and Co required is extremely high. OEMs will not move to LFP because of superior cost or performance, but because they simply can’t source enough NCM batteries.
