DFS Capex guessing game simple napkin number musings, to add...

DFS Capex guessing game simple napkin number musings, to add some meat to random dart numbers thrown at the board :
* 565K PFS to 1.6K '22 preso's wet ore is ~ 2.85x increase, but many products in '22 are only double quantity (eg Fe, Magnesia)
* So simple Capex increase of x2.8 is not accurate; uncertainty exists!
* With efficiencies of scale + flowsheet refinements + performance guarantee + waste gas potential considerable reduction in cost of one of two major inputs (other nitric acid) > IMO multiple will decrease
* If no efficiency = 2.85 * 1, now presume efficiencies found of 20%, new multiple = 2.85 * 0.8 = 2.28
* Original PFS capex AUD $441M + 72M contingency (16%) = AUD $513M
* DFS Capex x2.28 + TRIPLE contingency case scenario (48%) to account for current mid term / build period inflationary environment etc = 513 x 2.28 x 1.48 = AUD $1.731M
** Well spotted if you see double contingency included! **
* Very, very conservative, but where is it in the possible spectrum of real life figures we don't have access to, but GM did?
My own opinion is we will see Larry Emdur chime in seductively, repeatedly with '....lower'
* Noting it is certainly not all about the capex.
* Impending metals deficits and increased pricing likely + all incoming ore now likely going out as saleable product + HPA premium ?? > earnings will obviously bump & provide the other side of the ledger.
* Potential stellar NPV and IRR figures incoming.
* This weekend's other big theme - Patience. While that song is a nice chance to see the Gunners slow down; next week's theme could well be this hit of theirs. Try and see them this month while they are down under!