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Lower Demand Hits Gold

By John Reade , Financial Times, 22 Oct 2008
There are likely to be further declines in the gold price given signs of slowing demand from the jewellery market and the recent strength of the dollar, believes John Reade, metals analyst at UBS.

"Indian demand for gold is much lighter now than in late August, the last time that gold prices were sinking rapidly," he says.

And it is not just Indian jewellery demand that is light, Mr Reade adds.

"Contacts at the Istanbul Gold Exchange report very subdued activities, and while there are some signs of Asian demand from outside India, overall there is much less support from the jewellery market now than there was a couple of months ago."

He says there are three reasons for this. "First, after having bought a lot of gold there is less pent-up demand now that stocks have been replenished.

"Second, the combination of the credit squeeze and slowing global growth has deterred potential buyers from stepping up again.

"Third, local currency weakness in India, Turkey, etc. has made gold more expensive in domestic currency terms."

The bottom line, Mr Reade says, is that there is now less support for gold at the $760 an ounce level compared to that seen in September.

And with the dollar strong, further declines in the price of the metal seem likely.

"With long liquidation likely to remain a feature of the market for some time, gold bulls need to be patient."