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Browithnomo

202 Posts.

27/04/16

18:31

Post #: 17612849
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Originally posted by septa ↑

4c was basically exactly where I thought it would be.

I feel the 4c's reflect what was being said by the company 6-9 months prior to its release. This 4c we're seeing what was talked about 6 months ago (some contracts starting to come to fruition). In 6 months time, we'll see everything that is getting talked about today (polymers,military,carpets, 60 sales staff etc. etc.).

I feel that we'll see (approx)
1mill 1Q
2.5 2Q
5 3Q
9 4Q
Add some rounding up into that and we're looking at approx 18 odd million. Also the revenue spread per HY is in line with expectation.

I feel that Mr Market (general market sentiment) today, are looking at this as a 'probably to maybe' to make the 18.5million US. Probable investors want to feel more 'certain' that the revenue is coming before buying.

If we can do approx 18.5 million US, but back end 9-10 million of that 4Q, people will then be buying into this company on a 'definite' to do 40-70-million US the following year.

A company with explosive growth, doing 70 million US revenue a year will be valued in the high millions or maybe the low billions.

My only concern is the 18.5 baseline this year. The company always muddles its words so sometimes feels hard to trust.

From a bullish point,however, I've only heard management be this 'confident' with one prediction before, and that was when we were undergoing military testing. The AJX team made it very clear they were frontrunners and were the 'only' ones in the race.... Which led to us winning the award a few months later.
Those of us around then would remember all the negative nancies telling us how it would never happen and the military had no love for AJX etc. etc. (just as we have now)

Now management are just as confident in the 18.5 million US ... As such imo I feel we don't have to lose much sleep about the 18.5 million forecast.

I think it's crazy to say the 18.5 million is 'priced in'. 1800% revenue growth in one year, with a run rate revenue of 30-40 million US is most definitely NOT priced in to this.

If someone can find me a company, with a new technology that has 1800% revenue growth YoY with a revenue run-rate of 40 million US that is valued at about 140 million US I will honestly eat my hat... Then I would sell my mum, my dad, pawn off my dog, take out credit card loans and buy as much of that company as I could... Companies with those metrics simply don't exist...

If/once Alexium can prove those kind of 'growth' and revenue metrics, we will be a long long way from where we are today.

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Septa my only concern with your great report is it appears you are mixing up US versus Aus dollars. The 4c report is in Aus dollars and the yearly forecast by Alexium is for 18.5 mill US dollars or 24 mill Aus dollars approximately.

AJX Price at posting: 63.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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