Qtrly report thoughts, page-6

Stenrant, I'm glad you asked!  My take is:

1. I really really really hate excuses.
2. 1 more ship out of Port Latta and a totally different qrtly would have been published.  For example, C1 costs would have been nearer $80/t ... and any number of people on this forum would have been bouncing off the walls! Any number of reasons why they didn't squeeze one more boat out including the tragic accident and I suspect, a huge effort at the backend of the last quarter.  So be it.
3. In reality, 1 more boat not likley whilst they need to move sooooooooooo much material (2.5m BCM) to recover soooooooo little ore (207K bcm).  A leap of faith and you will conclude that this will be reversed as the cutback "moving towards the main ore zone".
4. My rough cash reconciliation suggests they have sunk another A$3m -> STDSF and invested around A$3m more in inventory.
5.  My other rough calcs suggest EBITDA approx A$15.1m or about A$0.015 per share for the quarter.  Extrapolate that over 4 quarters and I think a 1.5c full year dividend willl happen ie 0.75 in Sept; 0.75 Mar 18.  Pre tax yield @ 14% ...
6.  Nonetheless, I really really really hate excuses.
7. I have a floor of around US$80/t for pellets.  At that price, they're making money but need to get the volumes up ...  the magic questions is then "will the high strip ratio go away ?

Have a great day.