qualitative analysis - neu, page-20

Hi rgc,

"Therefore, to speculate in this share in the midst of euphoria is one thing, but to assume that it represents a strong likelihood of future success is very much another. Hopefully, as a small NZ biotech company, they are successful, but overall the likelihood is less than 50%.

Thanks for your reply. Imo, a 50% likelyhood of success is traditionally considered to be very promising for a biotech company.

I don't believe Neuren are "in the midst of euphoria" but I do believe this stock along with many other bio's still remain under-valued and I certainly believe the market has been very slow to pick up on this. I think many would agree that both the health and biotech sectors have out-performed the rest of the market over the past 12 months and as we start seeing more investors move away from our small explorers we'll continue seeing more runs on the table and a re-rating of this sector which still imo remains largely deflated since the GFC.

Additionally, we should expect to see the milestone announcement from Perseis Therapeutics re in vivo efficacy results within the next couple of weeks and Neuren's PhaseI clinical trial for the oral NNZ-2566 is also due to commence next month in January so enough coals to keep this fire burning in the s/term imo.

I haven't done much homework on nefiracetam as Neuren's progress in this area didn't form any part of my initial decision to invest in the company recently.

What I do find very encouraging is the promising potential and strong US Government backed support for NNZ-2566. Imo, partner funded support in the biotech sector is one reasonably sound indicator for the potential of a company's technology.

Neuren's failure to deliver positive results in the past may have been largely due to the heart bypass model used in the pivitol trials. This TBI model provides a much better chance for success with the superior NNZ-2566 compound.

Additionally, having FDA fast track designation for an urgently required unmet medical need Neuren may also be granted a SPA and only be required to complete one phaseIII trial. Submit an NDA as early as Q3/2013 and we might be gearing up for FDA approval in late 2015 or 2016 would certainly have to be on the cards which also fits with the company's projected launch date in 2017.
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Hi jontyg,

Thanks for your reply - you've just been added to my favorites list, cemented for this post, however I certainly agree with you in that assessing companies by their management also remains an essential key for my own investment strategies.

Being a kiwi I have a lot of respect for long serving politician Mr Winston Peters and I would certainly credit him among some other noble patriots for New Zealand's solid #1 global position as the least corrupt country on the global corruption barometer but it must be remembered that he also accused both NZ's Inland Revenue Department and the Serious Fraud Office of fraudulent activity in the same enquiries and this was, to put it mildly, an extremely bold move that would only ever result in highlighting a politicians polling agenda.

Although I don't have a vivid memory for many names on the board of Bank of New Zealand or Fay Richwhite I was serving in the capacity of various positions with the ANZ during the BNZ bailouts back in 1989 and do recall a large percentage stake in the bank going to Richwhite’s company for a song, but without it the BNZ would not have survived a cashflow crisis for another 12 months. If I recall correctly it was only about 12 months later that the NZ Government stepped in to bail them out again.

By implicating our Chairman in certain parliamentary claims it has been stated many times that this was only an attempt by our good politician to stain both the BNZ Bank and Richwhite, New Zealand's richest man at the time, as they were two of his primary campaign targets

Although NZ's very own IRD boss at the time of those enquiries also denied the claims, my own vote, like yours, would probably lean more towards the affirmative side of the argument but I would add that I also believe if the true extent of corporate tax evasion in large corporations on both sides of the Tasman was ever exposed there might not be one man, woman or child on either nations BRW rich list, past or present that would escape the firing line, imo.

Whilst I do certainly share your opinion, "I consider management & Board's track history of prime importance" one could also argue that some of the most respected and successful names were also implicated in those enquiries and furthermore some of our Chairman's past appointments with big players in the corporate world should not be dismissed too lightly imo...

His directorships have included Comalco (now Rio Tinto), Fay Richwhite, Freightways, Jardine Fleming, Lion Nathan, Post Office Bank NZ, BNZ Finance, NZ Railways Corp and deputy chairman of the Bank of New Zealand.

Even when such allegations may taint a persons past we as individual investors can still recognise experience of this high calibre remains a valuable asset to any promising small micro cap like Neuren.
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Also should add that I did make a couple of errors in my "cut'n'paste" haste yesterday morning. I make the following correction:

Adverse effects in patients (10%)
* Drug appeared to be safe, well-tolerated in Cohort 1
* Safety at higher dose - to be determined?
* Cardiovascular safety - low risk but no data yet?

It should be noted that the "Drug appeared to be safe and was well tolerated in both Cohort 1 and Cohort 2 as per the recent update.

"Review of safety data by the Data Safety and Monitoring Committee has been finalized and the third cohort has been opened for enrolment. There were no Serious Adverse Events (SAEs) in Cohort 2 patients reported as being drug-related."