quant map of risk for swing longs, page-16

Hi All,

Just an update on how I am handling my position in QBE.AX given I posted a quantitative macro view representative of my action plan for it back in late Jan.

The most recent move is a solid one as QBE is starting to show up on the radars of a lot of fund guys now that there is at least some prospect of a reduction in QE in the US entering discussion. Whether that happens of not remains to be seen however this stock is very heavily favoured by a rise in rates and their diversity of businesses globally means they are probably the best insurer in the world to benefit from a return to rate normality.

My initial expectation was to see $16 this year as suggested so I thought now was timely to update my view.

I am going to be hedging some gains as we approach the $16 area as I think equity markets are due some kind of reasonably pullback before E(y).

Any moves back into the $13-14.25 area will see me reallocate long the alpha generated in this position that I will commence hedging from $15.50 area and higher.

A move below $12.00 now would concern.