MYX

1.51%

$4.71 mayne pharma group limited

Nice assessment savvy. I remember you wisely sold out early ....

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26/06/17

08:30

Post #: 25482579
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Originally posted by savvyinvestor ↑

grazer im not sure i agree with or understand your statement that "maintaining or growing profits requires huge capital investments".

generics are an interesting and complex area to invest given that the actual capital investment and risk in the capex is much lower than for patent protected new drugs, however there is potential for declining profits and revenues for each new drug once released into the market as additional generics subequently enter the market over time or the drug falls out of favour with prescribers due to newer superior alternatives.

therefore the company needs to continue to add new drugs over time to replace those that decline in revenue, this is the natural lifecycle of the generics manufacturer.

the good news though, is that the initial margins relative to capex for each new drug are often exceptionally high and so this averages out over 5-10yrs as a good roi.

as the absolute number of products/ generics slowly rises in the portfolio, even the old and less exciting drugs whose revenue contribution are fading will still provide a modest positive earnings contribution long after they have paid off their initial investment.

mayne now has a large portfolio, they have around 18-20 new drugs under fda review which should be approved and enter the market within 12-18mo, and the fda/ govt's buggest new priority is fastracking fda approvals which is good for generic manufacturers.

myx has invested heavily in expanding manufacturing facilities which will improve/ offset margins despte buyer consolidation from hmo's.

my main concern was the risk that myx would be damaged by trump administrations threats of new legislation to allow the govt to negotiate drug costs with pharma. given the announcements of the last few days it looks like that risk has suddenly disappeared.

give that was my biggest fear i bought back into myx big time on friday at 1.06 and 1.08.

i think this will be a mjaor inflection point from a fundamental perspective but of course no one can predict sentiment and the broader market and how hard the shorters will fight and how long it will take the market to recognise the importance of this policy backflip.

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Nice assessment savvy. I remember you wisely sold out early . Now you bought back in at a good price. I unfortunately held on and my average is still about $1.30. Hopefully I will still make some money over the next 6 months.

cheers and hope the run up continues and that it's the shorters turn to feel the whip hand.
! Good luck to holders.

MYX Price at posting: $1.13 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $4.71		Change 0.070(1.51%)		Mkt cap ! $400.7M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$4.67	$4.75	$4.62	$953.1K	203.6K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	1236	$4.71

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$4.72	620	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	1236	4.710
1	13000	4.700
1	190	4.690
2	190	4.680
1	190	4.670

Price($)	Vol.	No.
4.730	190	1
4.740	190	1
4.750	115	1
4.760	188	1
4.770	188	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 28/06/2024 (20 minute delay)

MYX (ASX) Chart

Nice assessment savvy. I remember you wisely sold out early ....

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Nice assessment savvy. I remember you wisely sold out early ....

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