So many possibilities... here is a possible trajectory in the next few quarters based off 5 patients in April, 15 vials purchased by end of April...
If this were to occur, we'd be slightly cash flow positive on a quarterly basis
Keeping in mind we'll need to make the below payments on the Oaktree facility.. with that bullet payment in Nov26 (Dec26 quarter)... achieving the above by Dec25 and then slowing our growth down would still mean we'd still easily cover Oaktree without any additional capital raise.
but without first sales... we are a A$2bn biotech with no revenues, who has burnt over a BILLION dollars in capital ... and we are too complicated... too risky... no thanks!
that is why, I don't actually think it matters too much what the sales are in the first quarter ... we just need to be seen as a revenue generating company first and foremost... and it'll be nice to follow up in Q2 with a decent growth in sales which is the point where our ability to become self sufficient will be abundantly clear, and the shorts will likely exit.. if not beforehand.
We've been harping on about IBD, adult SR-aGVHD, CLBP, heart... these are multi-billion dollar blockbuster potentials that no analyst or insto is interested in, won't even look into it... because we are too risky and too hard to understand. Partnerships have come and gone ... none have been successful thus far. We are the boy who cried wolf when it comes to partnerships .. we've been in advanced discussions for a long long time...
Anyway, our current operating expenses is about US$15m per quarter .. and if that were to double to US$30m as projected.. then the above covers that by Dec-25... it might take a couple or a few quarters of growing sales to get sufficient traction, but once instos take notice and take us seriously.. and actually invest the research hours to look under the hood of Mesoblast... they will come to realise we could have an accelerated approval in heart failure by June 2026.. then potentially adult SR-aGVHD approval end of 2026 and then CLBP approval in mid-late 2027 ... all this and a lot more
If the shorts also exit around this time, that will put us up in lights .. increasing coverage of our stock .. which at that stage be gearing up for another BLA submission .. growing sales, maybe even cash flow positive... a couple trials ongoing ... and who knows, maybe the elusive partnership finally turns up.
The stars are there in Mesoblast ... they just need to be noticed, and thus far they haven't .. but sales and burning shorts should provide sufficient illumination for instos to take notice and take positions in another Australian biotech success story.
Buying and holding at the lows is a lot harder than it sounds ... its easy to buy a stock that is flying ... but the real profits are made by those who have the patient and conviction to buy and hold when others are selling... and then just enjoy the show once it starts flying!
At the end of the day, we know the market size and the cost of each vile ... it's not a matter of if, but when we break even and then become cash flow positive... be it 6 months, 9 months or 12 months from now ... we will be a self sustaining commercial biotech company in short order.
Goodluck all
(20min delay)