You like asking difficult questions dont you Stoss.
There would be a lot of crystal balling involved in what you ask,but if your basing it on what the current bfs has to offer without the feldspar I'd have to say that you would be close to the mark.
BUT
hasnt it always been the tantalum/tin AND feldspar thats attracted investors to Gip.
Through all the annmnts over the last year or so Gip has constantly referred to the feldspar coming on line after they have the tantalum/tin sorted.The reasoning behind this is linked to the feldspar HOA that calls for 250,000T/Yr(2005/6?) but ramping up to 900,000T/Yr(2009).Cso1 has told us a few times that the feldspar is not the priority product due to the way the feldspar HOA is arranged whereas the full tantalum production is required around a year from now and the tin can be sold any time on the LME thereby giving Gip a revenue stream that will be large enough to repay the debt as well as finance any plant required for feldspar processing as well as giving them the fairly important revenue stream for debt finance security.
Now I have no idea how the basics of the feldspar HOA are arranged apart from the amounts required over that 4-5 year period,but what I do know is that the Spanish have recently started using a tile/ceramic technology that requires higher use of high quality feldspar,the type of which Gip will be able to supply.If you havnt seen it have a look at post 579528 which gives a link to a presentation last year on feldspar by Marc Lebrun.
Dont forget if Gip do sign a definitive feldspar contract within the next year or so its highly likely that the feldspar will be online prior to the repayment of the debt finance.
It may well turn out that another tantalum consumer comes to Gip and asks for more production in which case it may well become more of a priority to up the tantalum plant output rather than go with the feldspar.
Then again the Spanish may come to the party and say we need your high quality feldspar pronto,which may change the proirity again.
What is important is that Gip get the 2Mtpa plant producing the tantalum/tin at designed capacity to give them the ability to repay debt and finance which ever way they decide to go consequently.
Its nice to think that Gip may well have an sp over $1 in the future but theres a lot got to happen before we get even close to that.
All this discussion is based on how the market would appraise a spec company trying to get an "unsexy" commodity to production.If a couple of large Australian instos or even UK instos decided they wanted a bigger slice of the pie for whatever reason then we may see a higher sp sooner.
Like I said Stoss its very crystal ballish isnt it.
But yes I would say 50c coming into production.
d.
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