I think you might have shortchanged MLX in your estimate.
Made nearly $19m last quarter. This quarter also get CN interest + increased AUD price + materially improved terms from their new smelter agreement. They have been shipping less than they have produced last 2 quarters - if that excess gets shipped then that will be a big boost.,
Grade, production, percentage of sales allocated to them and any shutdowns are obviously unknown, although I'm cautiously optimistic that the impacts of mining the higher grade areas might see a little bit more improvement this quarter.
I'm thinking $20-$25m and closer to the upper end.
Quarterly cash flow estimates, page-2
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