Chinese basket rate reported as US$21.57 since end June (or approx A$24 at 90cents (ish)).
CFO stipulated Lynas sell price at least at Chinese basket rate (although avoided giving a direct response to the very direct question of "how much invoiced?").
Assuming these variables remain stable, and no more production issues, as at Q1 (September), based on 300 tons, cash balance would be in range of $75-$80million, (per my calcs).
Also, per my estimates, provided phase 1 production and sales can exceed, give or take, 1500 tons per quarter (full capacity being 2750 tons), I agree there should not be a need for capital raising. This is 'back-of-a-fag-packet' analysis, but would be interested to learn directly from Eric/Louise what they have calculated as cash-flow neutral operating model going forward.
However, with the serious cash burn in this operation, it wouldn't take much to force a different decision.
December 2013 half-year results could be especially significant in my opinion, and for future briefings, both CEO and CFO need to make sure they are impeccably prepared and a lot more polished from a PR/Investor relations' perspective.
I agree with those who have suggested that without significant news outside of the quarterly update, (of a positive nature), I fail to see how the share price can head noticeably higher up to the end of this current calendar year.
And I would certainly be interested in hearing/reading any update from Paterson Securities!
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