quarterly due...and good update, page-54

This has been a really interesting company to watch.

In general over the last 3 months since The Big Jump, they've put out a string of consistently good announcements though none have been Pot Of Gold At End Of rainbow quality since the one in October that kicked off the recent interest.

Anyone who's seen a damped oscillator in science textbooks will recognise the chart action since October. We've had upward swings every month or so before around at 10c average. The volume action has fallen off exponentially. I mean that comment literally- when you average out the fluctuations you can fit a very nice exponential decay to the volume since October.

A little while ago I "fearlessly" predicted that we'd grind out a base of 9.7-9.8c. So far that looks to be almost correct and support is currently 9.6c.

However if you look at the chart behaviour since the Monster Breakout Of 2010, there has been a solid volume resistance of 1,000,000. That is, every day there's been at least a million shares traded. This has only been broken twice- December last year and a few days ago. Judging by the inert trading so far, today may be another.

So let's look at the situation: if you were to draw an "F.A. chart" you'd say that after a sudden jump up in October things have been steadily improving. However the T.A. shows deadlock. (On the bright side the lows have all been getting higher)

My reading of the situation I think reflects the bleeding obvious: a bunch of people jumped on board in October because (a) they thought there was going to be another killer announcement (so "riding the F.A.") (b) they thought the trend was going to continue up but ran out of buyers (riding the T.A.). Given the monster overhang from Oct 10 maybe it's no surprise the trend died.

The price action since Oct 11 is really just a small version of the price action since Oct 10. Fractal fans will be pleased.

I think, as we've all discussed here, the T.A. gives us two options (unhelpfully not saying what is likelier): fall back and fill the gap, or eventually break out to 16c or so with 12.5 as new resistance. My next "fearless" prediction: the F.A. is too good so AVB is more likely to go up than down (DYOR alert! DYOR alert!). To be even more specific: a failed break back up to 12.5, 11c becomes new resistance before finally breaking through. I'd say the time line is by end March (surprise surprise, JORC time).

I'm quite happy to make predictions in the almost certain knowledge I'll be wrong. Either way the chart says we're overdue for a break.