Some interesting discussions regarding the Quarterly and the SPP.
The quarterly was very much 'as we expected'. Tweetypie gave a good summary and to some extent, most news had already been released a few days previously.
As to the question of taking up one's allocation through the SPP, it really does depend on your portfolio and your current holding of LKO. Once this is sorted, you then need to address the next issue - will these SPP shares at 1c be a bargain some time between August and Christmas? Looking at the scenario in front of us, we have 4 possibilities. * Wombat 2 * Wombat 3 * Seaspray * Wombat 4
After reading the Quarterly, Seaspray sounds a difficult prospect and I suspect that less attention might be focussed here than we expect. Wombat 2 had good initial flow rates. We have been told that pressure seems to be remaining very strong at this site. Work continues here - the likelihood of a positive outcome here (IMHO) in the next 2 months seems reasonable. Given the market added .006c for the initial flow rate, a positive sustained rate should add significantly to the SP.Any positive news will surely be accompanied by a widespread media release. Remember what happened when the initial flow rates came in! Wombat 3 has equipment being sourced for the testing. We know it has gas. When it finally gets tested, the initial flow rate is likely to be OK. If nothing else, it should give the SP a spike in the short term at least. Finally we have Wombat 4. Although it is surrounded by other activity, it does have some BESBS potential given the SP is currently capped at 1c. Yes, there is a chance that this SPP stock might be sold off for short term profit but this only occurs when we are in profit...the SP has to rise for this to occur.
That said,it is also in LKO's interest to get a good response to the SPP. Don't be surprised if we get some positive news before acceptance date and cheques are due. If not, I'd see management extending the date so this can occur and attempt to increase the acceptance rate. The flip side view is that they have given the punters a chance to buy. If good news is confirmed once the offer closes, their good friends at Pattersons and other Sophisticated Investors will have a big bonus.
I have only re- invested 20% of my original holding since selling out but will take up my allocation for the above reasons. There are no guarantees and given I made 265% return on this earlier (see earlier postings), I am probably biased here but I do see some potential SP rise triggers ahead. Please DYOR and remember I am no professional analyst but a mug punter trying to make sense of the scenario ahead just like the rest of us.
LKO Price at posting:
1.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)