For what it's worth Trudy, some of us have been very positive on...

For what it's worth Trudy, some of us have been very positive on this stock for well over 2 years (personally, have held it since 10.5 cents and still holding 60% of my original purchase).

As such, we have not been pumping it and then forgetting it. Make up your own mind - the information is all pretty straight forward and little guesswork for this one. When it was 20 cents I thought it was a $1 stock. Come June 07 financials if this is not over $2 I will be very surprised.

Quarterly report makes the following clear:

3 mths revenue: US$9.1 mill (discounting catch-ups)
3 mths expense: US$3.7 mill (including exploration)

3 mth Cash flow: US$5.4 mill
Annualised: US$21.6 mill

Debt is US$74 mill (refer AMU hedging announcement). Assume interest rate of 10% (higher than according to hedge announcement) we have income of US$14.2 million - approx $18.5 million Aussie dollars.

For a company capitalised at around $200 million, with $40 million of the market cap from ARW, the numbers at in no way demanding. Then consider the following:

* by 2007 ARW will have been selling diesel from plants for a full year and showing strong profit - share price likely above current levels (or at worst solidly supported)
* the above expenses exploration, assuming no success. Worst case over the past couple of years will see 60% success
* reasonable portion of oil and gas is hedged, so almost no downside risk to the numbers

MJS