BLV 0.00% 1.6¢ blossomvale holdings ltd

guys i am as bullish as anyone about NMS prospects, but the...

  1. 79 Posts.
    guys i am as bullish as anyone about NMS prospects, but the quarterly gave me some cause for concern... as i said in the other thread, lets not get carried away with revenues/profits forecasts, CASH is all that matters as the figures can't lie... and a business making profits without cash is broke!

    so here are my concerns:

    1) Receipts only just covered working capital & wage costs. $1.5 million operating CF is not good enough to impress the market at the moment. Obviously, we have a large accounts receivable balance. Surely, this accounts receivable balance should have been mentioned in Lange's report, i know they dont legally have to do it and i could probably work it out myself, but it is material info when assessing this statement. Some sort of comment about its size and when they expect the bulk of it to be paid would have reassured the market and been beneficial to the SP
    2) We have 8 mil in cash and 3 mil in loan facility totalling 11 mil in cash available. Lets conservatively say that working cap will be 20 mil and wages 15 mil next quarter totalling 35mil... so assuming worst case scenraio that we do not receive any receipts from customers at the start of this quarter, our current cash reserves can only tide us over for 1 month (35 mil outflow for quarter / 11 mil available). How do we know we will be receiving some large cashflows in the first month of the new quarter? IMO they are cutting the whole cash management pretty fine... which is risky considering how scared the market is of poor CF management...
    3) we can talk all we want about revenues rising, but that means nothing if both working capital and staff wages outflows rise at the same or greater pace as cash receipts. I can't believe there hasnt been more discussion of this? keeping costs down is just as important as revenues rising...

    Next quarterly will obviously be the key... i want to see large cash receipts, ie larger than revenue (indicating they have recouped some of last quarters revenue) as well as an indication that outflows on working capital and wages are not rising at too rapid rate...

    i also would like to see more of a cash buffer built up in case times get tough... so that means slowing down acquisitions or cap expenditure for a little while and letting organic growth do its thing...

    Not downramping guys, just honest discussion as I hold a few shares and they are my concerns... still very bullish on this one
 
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