Lol these idiots just dont understand how juniors work...
Yes high CAPEX is the name of the game... but so too is IRR and ROE ROC
I didnt see woolworths jbh, or many others beating thier end of year sales figures in the quarter
The oil price is a very real concern, but like it seems to be bottoming... Nov 27 will be crucial...
Already we are hearing oil majors shelving plans...this will begin to flow into supply dynamics soon and help stabilise prices... But what opec odes will be a more sudden influence
I had a chat with Eric via email and he believes analysts are rating them at the high end of guidance anyway...missing guidance has long term effects hence the under selling of the result
The 8 wells coming online will be shorter lower cost wells...so being shorter they wont be adding 600+ they might be adding 300 then down to 225 , plus lower interest wells
That to me would indicate another 3 -5 online that might be higher interest longer laterals
Thus I revise my exit rate down, but still monumentally impressive...
We just need oil prices to stabilize and OPEC to have a revise stance in 3 weeks from now...
They are well below stated guidance so its not likely OPEC would not revise production numbers down and look for $90ish oil
On a huge positive is the margins SEA is still achieving and its margins compared to many others... so i would be thinking SEA and others will see some margins improve further as they renegotiate supply contracts and LOE's further...
If you look at SEA non operated LOE's they are indicative of plenty of players not achieving the efficiency of SEA...those players will be reducing development and relinquishing leases well in advance of SEA.... this will flow thru to opportunities for the lower cost players...
Its a bit frustrating int he short term and ads risk, but it might turn out far better in the longer run...
SEA Price at posting:
$1.13 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
