Here are the calculations on why I think the June production is likely to fall within the 69-73Koz range. Lots of variables and therefore I wouldn't stake any bet on it. This is just a mental exercise and not to be taken seriousy.
Gold produced from purchased ores = (500,000/15*3+400,000/18*3)*3.2*0.93/31.1=15.9Koz (3.2 ore grade, 0.93 Recovery, 31.1 gram to troy oz) March qtr production from Genesis-mined ores = 54Koz Total expected gold production for June qtr = 15.9+54Koz = 69.9Koz
Uncertainties: 1) Purchased ores grade may be lower. Negative 2) There was 11,000 tons of purchased ores already being paid and therefore assumed to be in GMD stockpile. Combined with average delivery rate, there will be more better quality (relative to GMD stockpiled ores of 0.5g/t at Laverton) ores being processed. Positive 3) Dec qtr (2024) production report mentioned better quality ores will be produced in June qtr than Mar qtr i.e. Leonoro will produce more gold. Positive 4) 48hr power loss at Leonoro for Mar qtr and therefore expect more production days for Jun qtr. Positive
GMD Price at posting:
$4.43 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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