LYC 0.75% $6.66 lynas rare earths limited

Quarterly Report, page-2

  1. 4,401 Posts.
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    Often Lynas announce when the quarterly will be released. I think by email or on their website to those who are on their mail list?

    My feeling on dividends is that the company would want to have banked profits of at least two year before it announced them, even if the JARE debt was renegotiated.

    With Lynas NEXT I think there is every chance the JARE facility could be paid off next year (in the December 2019 cash sweep). If so then maybe a divey in October 2020 for the second half of FY20?

    There was a bit of capex last quarter so if they can run $20m up in cash flow then that's amazing. All things going well then $40m is possible in Dec Q. The falling AUD helps a bit. That $60m can retire say $40m USD of debt (AUD doesn't help here, fluctuations are a zero sum game in paying off the JARE) bringing it down to $110mUSD

    Then $80-$100mAUD per half next year means the JARE facility can be closed by December. Maybe LYC will make a point of closing it early, say in September.

    My figures I think are pretty conservative, if NEXT really takes off then maybe it could be paid in June. Remembering also that Lynas have an additional close to $50mil in the bank that they could use to retire debt of they wanted to.

    If it is paid off by June, then maybe a March 2020 interim is on the cards.
 
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